by Doug Lyon, PhD
Q4'05: 15-Feb-06 Neg earning surprise of 0.20 vs exp 0.26 (-23.1%). Stock moves from $24 to $19 (-20%).
Q1'06: 11-May-06 Neg earning surprise of 0.15 vs exp 0.22 (-31.8%). Stock moves from $20 to $15 (-25%).
Q2'06: 10-Aug-06 Pos earning surprise of 0.32 vs exp 0.24 (33%). Stock moves from $13 to $15 (+13%).
Q3'06: 9-Nov-06 Pos earning surprise of 0.34 vs exp 0.30 (13.3%). Stock unmoved.
This stock is in the same sector as PCLN (also at its high for the year). Positive forecasts on this stock have raised expectations. It would appear, at this point, all the good news has been factored into the price of the stock. A negative earning surprise, at this point, will most likely result in substantial decline in the stock price. A somewhat positive earnings surprise has, historically, been attenuated (perhaps by the already high expectations).
It is hard to see very much upside in the short-run for EXPE. The next Q4 report is out in Feb 15, 2006. If the stock heads north of $23, all things remaining equal, I might consider going long on the April 20, 2007 puts.